Tuesday, June 06, 2006

You Say Warming, I say Cooling

There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. The resulting famines could be catastrophic: “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”

Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.

Thanks to son John for sending me the 1975 Newsweek story excerpted above on the trend toward global cooling. It may look foolish today, but in fact world temperatures had been falling since about 1940. It was around 1979 that they reversed direction and resumed the general rise that had begun in the 1880s, bringing us today back to around 1940 levels.

Yet the current hysteria about global warming sounds ominously similar.

In 1997, H. Sterling Burnett, an environmental policy analyst with the National Center for Policy Analysis, wrote an analysis called Myths of Global Warming. Here are some findings.

Myth #1: Scientists Agree the Earth Is Warming. While ground-level temperature measurements suggest the earth has warmed between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees Celsius since 1850, global satellite data, the most reliable of climate measurements, show no evidence of warming during the past 18 years.

Myth #2: Humans Are Causing Global Warming. The scientific experts most directly concerned with climate conditions reject the theory by a wide margin. A Gallup poll found that only 17 percent of the members of the Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Society think that the warming of the 20th century has been a result of greenhouse gas emissions.

Myth #3: The Government Must Act Now to Halt Global Warming. The belief underlying this myth is that the consequences of near-term inaction could be catastrophic. However, a 1995 analysis by proponents of global warming theory concluded that the world's governments can wait up to 25 years to take action with no appreciable negative effect on the environment.

Myth # 4: Human-Caused Global Warming Will Cause Cataclysmic Environmental Problems. Reputable scientists, including those working on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reject these beliefs. For example, sea levels are rising around the globe (natural between ice ages) though sea levels have risen more than 300 feet over the last 18,000 years - far predating any possible human impact. The current rate of increase is slower than the average rate over the 18,000-year period.

As Algore promotes his global-warming movie, College Republicans ridicule the movie with Global Warming Beach Parties. Freeze out cataclysmic environmental scare tactics with a little humor. The Oklahoma University College Republicans gave out free snow cones to students for an event they called "Global Cooling Day." Stage an event like this one to grab the attention of your campus and raise awareness on the real facts of the global warming phenomenon. Engage with students and debunk some of the myths and cool the hyperbole surrounding the issue. The facts are on your side.

Meanwhile the Democratic National Committee reports: The College Republicans actions demonstrate the misplaced priorities and short-sightedness of the future of the Republican Party. As College Democrats continue to fight for issues that young Americans care about like an affordable college education, pot legalization and sociable medicine, Republicans continue to push their out of touch agenda. The College Republicans' ignorance toward the seriousness of global warming and climate change shows a Party more focused on partying than talking seriously about the issues facing young people across America.

Party on kids!!

I’ll be off for a few days playing in a bridge tourney. Fill up the comments. By the way, I hope you voted against the children of illegal aliens babysitting bill, also known as the Meathead pre-school bill.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Since I have had this discussion before refuting your post is already done. Just copy and paste.

Do you know something NASA doesn't
They say-
A majority of climatologists have concluded that human activities are responsible for most of the warming. Human activities contribute to global warming by enhancing Earth's natural greenhouse effect.

global warming science

If you you haven't read enough from the site posted there is more here from Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

more from NASA site- that some "greenhouse skeptics" subvert the scientific process, ceasing to act as objective scientists, rather presenting only one side, as if they were lawyers hired to defend a particular viewpoint.

I don't think anyone seriously doubts humans are affecting the climate or maybe I should say I don't think anyone that is serious doubts humans are changing the climate.


8:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have to agree with the above. Getting your talking points from Exxon funded right wing think tanks seems to defeat the purpose, which is to have a serious discussion. But we all know that Bill thinks that "science" is all bunk anyways.

9:33 PM  
Anonymous Mel said...

Bill, I checked out some of your "facts" and learned the following:

- The National Center For Policy Analysis is a right wing think tank known for supporting the most conservative politcal issues. It is not a scientific organization!
- Eight of hottest years occured in the last 10 years. This was based on NASA data and supported by every scientific report I could find.
- The official position of nearly all scientific earth science and meteorological societies is that climate change is for real, it is caused primarilly by human activity, and, if left unchecked, it will cause great problems. The only uncertainty is how long this will take. I could not find any Gallup poll to the contrary.
- Nearly all other organizations such as the National Acacemies Report and the Union of Concerned Scientists, and various international scientific symposiums wholly support the above conclusions.
- Therefore, all of your four "Myths" are not supported by the scientific data.

1:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have to disagree Mel. I heard on Rush Limbaugh the other day that NASA is a left wing think tank, and that all of their information is pretty much bogus! I'll stick with the oil companies...they have the know-how and the smarts to tell me whether or not this "global warming" is something to be "concerned" about. Keep up the good work Bill! We could could really use your talents here at the National Alliance.

1:45 PM  
Blogger Free Agency Rules said...

And of course all of those unbiased scientist's who rely on research grants, they have nothing to gain by "crying wolf" and by saying "the sky is falling."

I'm sure they would get just as many research grants for the "All is fine" research project.



3:06 PM  
Blogger Free Agency Rules said...

Anyone read the colomn in the Washington Post about Colorado University's Bill Grey or Bill Gray, where he has proof that in 8 years the earth is going to start cooling?

I lost the link, anyone help?


3:09 PM  
Blogger Free Agency Rules said...

I think it was an article by Joel Achenbach.


The movie by Gore is more for his next venture into the race for President than his concern for mother earth.

Too bad most people recognize him as a person who...what should I say... "embellishes" way too often?

First a guy that invented the internet, to a guy that "first votes for it, and then votes against it"....and then is proud of his inconsistancy.



3:31 PM  
Blogger Free Agency Rules said...

Oh, and by the way here are two things to consider:

1.”Most scientists do not believe human activities threaten to disrupt the Earth’s climate. More than 17,000 scientists have signed a petition circulated by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine saying, in part, “there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate.” (Go to www.oism.org for the complete petition and names of signers.) Surveys of climatologists show similar skepticism.”

2. Our most reliable sources of temperature data show no global warming trend. Satellite readings of temperatures in the lower troposphere (an area scientists predict would immediately reflect any global warming) show no warming since readings began 23 years ago. These readings are accurate to within 0.01ºC, and are consistent with data from weather balloons. Only land-based temperature stations show a warming trend, and these stations do not cover the entire globe, are often contaminated by heat generated by nearby urban development, and are subject to human error.”



3:58 PM  
Anonymous Mel said...

Yes, there was an inconsistancy between land based and satellite based temperature data. A report released in 2000, "Reconciling Observations Of Global Temperature Change" examined this conflict in detail. It found errors in instrument calibrations and difficulties in interpreting the data. More recent satellite data is in much better agreement, largely resolving the dispute. It concluded that the surface temperature rise in the past 20 years is undoubtedly real.

5:12 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gotta say FAR, you find any whacked out organization on the internet (OISM) and expect everyone to believe you? You and that pyschiatrist friend of yours who thought he was an astronomer. Get some real info, not half baked "surveys" which are misleading. Get some info from the National Academy of Sciences or NASA, not from Joseph George or other purveyors of weird information. You sound very much like a UFO conspriacy theorist. If you want to have a serious discussion and to have people take you seriously, desist from using disinformation. Thank you.

5:52 PM  
Blogger Free Agency Rules said...

What, 17,000 scientists are UFO freaks?

Huh? Are you saying that the liberal/blue state of Oregon is wackoo, and the 17,000 signitures are all being mislead?

Please explain.


8:18 PM  
Blogger Free Agency Rules said...


The report said the readings are for the last 23 years. So, are you saying that for 23 years the instrumentation calibration was always wrong?


8:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

These are mostly unverifiable, bogus signatures from a bogus organization that has no standing in the scientific world. Science is not conducted by survey. Since you persist using information from questionable sources, it is clear that you are not someone that can have a rational discussion. I am through responding to you.

6:23 AM  

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